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Jonathan Atkin on the pending T-Metro marriage

Jonathan Atkin analyzes the wireless sector for RBC Capital Markets, LLC.

Better put, Jon dissects the wireless sector, looking at the players, numbers, and technologies in multiple contexts and from multiple angles spotting nuances leading to a much deeper and more complete worldview of wireless.

I have had the pleasure of hearing Jon present at several AGL regional conferences, and I always walk away from his presentations with a much keener view of the wireless industry and its direction(s).

Jon released a research report a few days ago on the pending T-Metro marriage that is well worth reading and understanding. He summarizes his research this way:

Our initial take is that a potential business combination between T-Mobile and MetroPCS is of dubious merit for Deutsche Telekom under business conditions and public-market valuations. We expect few regulatory barriers to such a deal, and believe Sprint could benefit competitively.

Jon points out that the proposed T-Metro intermarriage is one of different transmission technology religions. This rules out quick systems’ integrations and synergies as each partner will continue to practice its own signal transmission religion for for foreseeable future. He cites Sprint as a much more suitable marriage partner for MetroPCS given that both of them practice the same signal transmission technology religion. (Hey, it’s my metaphor…go with it.)

Not mentioned in Jon’s analysis is that with Sprint’s deployment of its Network Vision project, that firm will be in a much better position to rapidly deploy MetroPCS services from the new Network Vision sites. This would allow Sprint to shutter some/many MetroPCS sites quickly, substantially reducing site lease rental costs, especially at existing collocated Sprint/MetroPCS sites.

The funny thing is that a Sprint+MetroPCS marriage would be much more likely to succeed compared with the disastrous Sprint+Nextel marriage, which, like the pending T-Metro marriage, is based on each marriage partner practicing a different and incomparable signal transmission religion.

Jon notes that even if the T-Metro marriage is consummated, the new shared life of those partners will be distracting early on in their new union, opening the door for Sprint (and Leap Wireless) to push forward. My gut feeling is that a consummated marriage between T-Mobile+MetroPCS will prompt a Sprint+Leap marriage.

Read Jon’s report by clicking here: Hello, Hello, Hallo – Thoughts on Potential DT/PCS Tie-Up.

Jonathan

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